Oliver's Insights: Shares have had a very strong rebound since March last year so where are we in the investment cycle?

Dr Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist takes a look at where we are in the investment cycle.

The key points are as follows:

  • The history of cyclical bull markets in shares suggests that the rebound since last March still has a way to go.

  • But it’s normal for the second 12 months of a cyclical bull market to see slower returns from shares.

  • While shares are vulnerable to a further correction triggered by the spike in bond yields, we are not seeing the sort of unambiguous overvaluation, economic overheating, monetary tightening and investor euphoria normally seen at cyclical tops.

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If you would like to discuss any of the issues raised by Dr Oliver, please call on PH: 1300 661 551 or email info@paradigmadvice.com.au.